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"12 Monkeys" and the reality of pandemics
Terry Gilliam's dystopian masterpiece, which tells the story of a virus that is lethal to humanity, allows us to reflect on how cinematic imagery and the history of pandemics are intertwined.
“12 Monkeys”, the movie that (almost) predicted the future
The year is 2035, and a terrible virus in 1996 has wiped out almost the entire world population. The surviving humans are underground and searching for a solution to make the earth habitable again. James Cole (Bruce Willis), a prisoner, is sent back in time in the hope of finding an antidote to the disease. Due to an error, he ends up in the wrong era and is locked up in an asylum, where he meets psychiatrist Kathryn Railly (Madeleine Stowe) and a crazy animal rights activist, Jeffrey Goines (Brad Pitt). He finally arrives in 1996, the year the epidemic began. We won't tell you any more about the plot: watch the movie if you haven't seen it yet, or watch it again if you already know it.
Viruses: between reality and fiction
The narrative focus of the movie is the pandemic, seen as the consequence of a human act: a virus deliberately released, with a clear allusion to bioterrorism. In the 1990s, while the threat of a virus created or spread intentionally may have seemed like science fiction to the general public, in the scientific and political world the issue was already the subject of serious discussion.
In 1994, the World Health Organisation published a document (“Public health response to biological and chemical weapons”) listing biological agents that could potentially be used as weapons – including anthrax, smallpox and plague – emphasising the need to prepare strategies. In the United States, the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention created a division dedicated to preparedness against biological threats, anticipating bioterrorism scenarios. The same year Gilliam's movie was released, 1995, was marked by the sarin gas attack on the Tokyo subway by the Aum Shinrikyo sect, which, according to investigations, had also unsuccessfully attempted to develop biological weapons based on anthrax and Ebola. Cinematic imagery and geopolitical fears thus ran on parallel tracks, feeding off each other.
The following years showed how closely reality could resemble fiction. In 1997, an outbreak of avian influenza in Asia, caused by the H5N1 virus, raised fears for the first time in modern times of a highly lethal pandemic. Although human-to-human transmission remained limited, the mortality rate of over 50% in recorded cases attracted global attention.
A few years later, in 2003, SARS arrived, caused by a coronavirus that spread rapidly from China to other countries, with approximately 8.000 cases and nearly 800 deaths. It was the first time that the WHO issued a global health alert in real time, experimenting with containment strategies.
In 2009, with influenza A(H1N1), a true influenza pandemic occurred, affecting millions of people worldwide. Although less deadly than initially feared, it highlighted the limitations of healthcare systems and the difficulty of balancing risk communication.
Between 2014 and 2016, West Africa was the scene of the most serious Ebola epidemic ever recorded. Over 28.000 cases and more than 11.000 deaths highlighted the fragility of local health structures, but also the need for a rapid international response. The emotional and media impact was enormous, influencing popular culture and the imagination about the deadly virus once again.
Finally, the COVID-19 pandemic, which exploded in 2020, represented the real turning point. In just a few months, SARS-CoV-2 spread globally, leading to unprecedented lockdowns, millions of victims and a profound impact on every aspect of social and economic life.
Film still from "12 Monkeys". Copyright: Universal Pictures / Terry Gilliam
Lessons from fiction and reality
Gilliam's movie depicted a world rendered uninhabitable by a virus deliberately released. Reality has shown that no deliberate action is needed to bring about collapse: the natural evolution of a pathogen in an interconnected global context is enough.
While 12 Monkeys exaggerated the apocalyptic element, real-life experiences have taught us that, between media alarmism, scientific uncertainties and health policies, the line between reality and imagination is often thin.
Real pandemics do not need time travel or terrorist organisations: they are the result of the encounter between man, nature and globalisation. Preparedness, scientific research and international cooperation remain the real antidotes, and perhaps the only form of “time machine” that allows us to look to the future with greater awareness.
The future of pandemics: how can we prepare?
We are certain that the COVID-19 pandemic will not be the last global health emergency. Scientific studies have suggested that the alteration of ecosystems induced by climate change could increase the chances of new epidemics.
Therefore, preparing for future pandemics is not only essential, but also urgent. How can we, as a global society, best prepare for the next pandemic?
The first step is to closely monitor the most relevant candidate pathogens. The list of the most dangerous pathogens is always dominated by airborne pathogens, such as influenza and coronaviruses, due to their ability to spread and rapidly generate new lethal variants.
Despite the likelihood that new pandemics will affect us in the future, there are some strategies we can adopt as a society to prepare for pandemics. For this reason, strengthening global monitoring systems remains a top priority. At the same time, healthcare infrastructures must be reinforced, research into vaccines and antivirals accelerated, and international cooperation made more solid and transparent. A further and no less decisive challenge is the fight against misinformation, which during COVID-19 has undermined public trust and weakened the effectiveness of public health measures.
Although pandemic preparedness is a global effort, individuals also have a role to play. Staying informed through official channels, supporting science-based policies, getting vaccinated and supporting increased funding for public health can contribute to a safer future. The next pandemic is not a question of “if” but “when”. But with foresight, investment and cooperation, we can be ready and save millions of lives.